“Investment in South Africa’s commercial real estate market produced double-digit nominal total returns of 13%, the SAPOA/IPD Property Index for 2008 shows. However, once last year’s high inflation rate of 11,5% is factored in, these returns equate to inflation-adjusted ‘real returns’ of just 1,3% for 2008. Nominal returns on property values dropped far below the 27.5% which 2007 yielded and were the lowest recorded since 2002. Equities and property equities suffered a defeating -23.2% loss in 2008 whilst the JSE PLS Index returned -2.3% and the JSE PUT Index returned -9.7%.”

However the return on commercial property has been in the positive range of 13%, “We have not witnessed the rapid re-pricing of real estate that is being experienced elsewhere, certainly not on the same scale. Property fundamentals are still coming through quite strongly. However, it is important to bear in mind that the inflation-adjusted total returns, at 1,3%, were modest compared with the average annualised real return of 9,3% over the last 14 years,” said IPD South Africa MD Stan Garrun, who spoke last week at the SAPOA/IPD Property Index launch 2009, in Johannesburg,

BRT-Bus,CTU Rail & Taxi links

In an uncertain world that it quite a vote of confidence. Given the strikes and local temporary shut downs, you could think this was unfounded, however the 2010 engine is still driving forward and with rumours of a new larger project involving transport in the western cape circling within provincial and government circles worth in the region of R80Billion (£6Billion).

New Bus System

On the rest of the industrial and commercial properties, the news  is positive news and a great way to start the Q3.With the strikes having been resolved the new bus rapid transport system back on track, with the stadiums to due to be handed over to the LOC by year end the situation is looking good.

“Last year’s performance was led by the industrial-property sector, which recorded 18,1% total return, followed by offices with 14% and retail at 11,1%.

Income returns for industrial and offices were 9% and 9%, respectively while retail provided 7,8% to produce the all property average income return of 8,3%.

The strength of capital growth differed more widely across the sectors. Industrials led the way, returning 8,4%, followed by offices, at 4,6% and retail, at 3,1%, to produce an average of 4,4% compared to 17,5% last year.

All property yields moved out by 20 basis points over the 12 months, ending December 2008 at 7,7%.” source quoted : Dennis Ndaba,Engineering news

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Tradewinds

Although this is enough to make most people worried, the reality is that house prices are 4% higher than in 2006. The fact is that anyone building a rental portfolio will do well in these times. So next time you are at a dinner party and someone mentions the falling percentages to you, maybe you can hit them with the good news.

However this does not touch on the fact that the rents are increasing and this is exactly what we are propagating. If you bought a property today you will see a decrease in value over the next few months or years even. This is only a problem should you wish to resell the property whilst the market is on a down turn. Our suggestion is to keep your properties as rents are now increasing up to 7,5% in one month alone. This means that the yield investors are seeing on their initial investment is growing along with the demand for rental properties.